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The federal budget spends slightly more than five dollars on each older adult for every dollar on each child

In 2023 federal outlays were $7,340 per child and $37,650 per adult 65 or older. The children's share of the budget is projected to shrink.

October 7, 2026 · 8 min read · Drafted by an AI agent, reviewed before publishing

Federal outlays in 2023 were $7,340 per child under 19 and $37,650 per adult 65 or older, slightly more than five to one. Children received $567 billion, 9 percent of federal outlays, and Kids' Share projects that share toward 6 percent. Social Security benefits were $1,448 billion in fiscal 2024 and Medicare $870 billion. By 2054, CBO projects that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid for people 65 or older will exceed half of noninterest federal spending. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund is projected to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits after reserves run out in 2033. An age-neutral budget would renegotiate that path instead of closing it with a higher payroll tax on current workers.

The federal budget is not age-neutral

In 2023 the federal government spent $7,340 on each child and $37,650 on each adult 65 or older. That is slightly more than five dollars per older adult for every dollar per child. The comparison is outlays, not tax cuts: the Urban Institute counts tax reductions for children and does not try to count them for older adults, so the per-person gap above leaves the elderly tax preferences out. Urban Institute, Kids' Share 2024 (PDF)

Federal outlays on children were 567 billion dollars in 2023, 9% of all federal outlays. Kids' Share projects that share to fall toward 6% over the following decade, while interest on the debt rises from 11 percent of outlays toward 17 percent. In fiscal 2024, out of 6.75 trillion dollars in federal spending, about 8% went to children. Outlays per child that year were $6,860, plus $1,710 per child in tax reductions. Those 2024 figures predate the 2025 tax law. Urban Institute, federal spending on children in FY2024

Add state and local government and the picture changes, because states pay for schools. Urban's latest combined figure, for 2021, is slightly less than two dollars per older adult for every dollar per child. The five-to-one skew is the federal budget. Age-neutral government in the United States is mostly a federal question.

Where the elderly dollars are

Social Security benefits were 1,448 billion dollars in fiscal 2024. Medicare, net of premiums, was 870 billion dollars. Together they are about 34.3% of a federal budget the Urban Institute puts at $6.75 trillion for that year. The average retired worker's monthly benefit in December 2024 was $1,975.34. CBO, Monthly Budget Review, FY2024 SSA, average retired-worker benefit, December 2024

CBO's long-run outlook has Social Security rising from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2024 to 5.9 percent by 2034, and then staying near that. For people 65 or older, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid together are projected to exceed half of all noninterest federal spending by 2054. The growth is enrollment plus health costs per person, not a new program. CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is projected to run out of reserves in 2033. At that point incoming revenue covers 77% of scheduled old-age and survivor benefits. The combined retirement and disability funds, which can be shown together only by assuming Congress lets them borrow from each other, run out in 2034, with 81 percent payable. About 68 million people were receiving Social Security at the end of 2024. Social Security Administration, 2025 trustees report

That depletion date is the scheduled moment when the age tilt gets renegotiated. Closing the gap by raising the payroll tax on current workers would make it wider. The tax is levied on wages. The benefits go to retirees.

A second cut, for fiscal 2025, uses different age bands. Penn Wharton's budget model assigns 2,708.6 billion dollars, 38.6% of federal outlays, to adults 65 and older, and 448.9 billion dollars, 6.4%, to people under 26. Per person that is about $43,700 against about $4,300. Social Security and Medicare are about 80 percent of the age-assignable spending on older adults in that model. Under 26 is not under 19, and the year is not 2023, so this checks the direction. It is not a second measurement of the five-to-one ratio. Penn Wharton Budget Model, federal spending by age, FY2025

What focusing on the young would move

An age-neutral federal budget would not mail children a retiree's check. Children do not have a lifetime of taxed wages to replace. It would stop the children's share from sliding from 9% toward 6% while Social Security and Medicare take a larger share of noninterest spending. The dollars that do that are the growth of those two programs, plus Medicaid for older adults in the CBO projection, not the education line, which is already the small one at the federal level.

Per person, the 2023 federal gap is $37,650 against $7,340. That ratio is the distance from age-neutral. State school budgets pull the all-government ratio under two-to-one, which is the argument for doing this in the federal budget rather than by cutting K–12.

What this is not saying

Social Security is wage insurance people paid into. It is also, under a pay-as-you-go tax, a transfer from today's workers to today's retirees. Both descriptions are true. Medicare is the open health entitlement, and it is the program CBO expects to drive the long-run increase.

It is not saying a poorer retirement is the goal. It is saying a budget that spends slightly more than five federal dollars on each older adult for every dollar on each child, and is on track to spend still more of its noninterest money that way, is not a budget aimed at the young.

Sources & further reading

The federal budget spends slightly more than five dollars on each older adult for every dollar on each child - GovSpendTracker